Page 10 - Port of Hamburg | Brochure | Port of Hamburg Magazine 2.2020

■ EXPORT GATEWAY
market falls of up to 40 percent in March/April can be offset before the end of the year.
BAVARIA, BADEN-WÜRTTEMBERG AND SWITZERLAND
After the month of April, especially, had brought falls of up to 40 percent on the previous year, export prospects for the second half are being seen ‘rela- tively optimistically’. The trend is mainly being fuelled by the automotive industry. Production and therefore export output in the car industry turned upwards from June, prompting hope and confi- dence in a recovery for other industries. Switzer- land, with no car production worth mentioning, dis- plays similar tendencies, especially as the pharmaceutical/chemical sector is the leading ex- porter.
AUSTRIA
Like the entire European market, the Austrian ex- port industry has been affected by the repercus- sions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The first six months brought a downturn on the same period of the previous year. A continuation of this trend is al- so anticipated for the third quarter. Yet for the fourth quarter and the beginning of 2021, the basic mood is positive.
HUNGARY
Economic activity picked up rapidly in the course of May/June, yet from such a low level that even out- put for these months remained below the pre-crisis level. Industrial output in the second quarter was 25 percent lower than in the first. The second wave of the epidemic could still delay recovery, but no coun- trywide lockdown is anticipated. Export growth in 2020 at around four percent is expected to be lower than in recent years.
CZECH REPUBLIC
The COVID-19 crisis may reduce exports to around 500 billion crownsor 19.2 billion euros, a fall of 16 per- cent. The main need now is to avoid any hit from a sec- ond wave, and for Germany to recover from the shut- down. Otherwise, export volume could fall by up to 24 percent and the trade balance turn negative. The pres- ent crisis has already wiped out four years of econom- ic growth in the Czech Republic. Exports are also back at the 2016 level. Last year, exporters achieved record figures. A steep fall in imports contributed decisively towards the record trade surplus.
POLAND
Among Poland’s leading export sectors are the au- tomotive and furniture industries, as well as food production. The pandemic seriously affected the first two, but exports picked up strongly in the sec- ond quarter. In June/July, overseas exports were at a level comparable with the previous year. Experts expect Poland to profit from the coronavirus crisis in the medium term, with production in East Asia – of automotive parts, for example – being transferred closer to European markets.
RUSSIA
The coronavirus pandemic had serious repercus- sions on the Russian economy and foreign trade vol- ume. The latter fell by 16.9 percent in the first half. The fall in the rouble may have stimulated Russian exports, but had a negative impact on imports of merchandise and domestic purchasing power.
The effects of the pandemic and of the economic downturn made themselves felt at an early stage in the Baltic countries. Even for the first quarter, Lithu- anian, Latvian and Estonian ports reported a distinct fall in cargo throughput. The decreases are not sole- ly attributable to the pandemic, but also to the Rus-
Martin Braml, ifo Centre for Foreign Trade
“The present state of affairs leads me to reckon with strong export growth for the final quarter as compared with the first three. A figure re- sembling the comparatively weak one for the same quarter of last year seems possible. As long as no major lockdown occurs again in Eu- rope, the signs indicate recovery. We seem to have passed through the vale of tears. The re- covery in domestic demand is generally more rapid, primarily because Germany came through the first part of the crisis better than most coun- tries. Partly because stimulus programmes will begin to kick elsewhere then, foreign demand will pick up within the foreseeable future.”
10 | Port of Hamburg Magazine | September 2020
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