Temporary easing of tension in India
07.23.2021 01:00 Economy
Things are looking better again. At the beginning of May, the daily number of new infections in India was still at 400,000 cases and 4000 deaths. Currently, they are now down to 40,000 cases. "Unlike last year, there is no centrally imposed lockdown. However, at state level, restrictions have been imposed almost everywhere, and these are now being gradually lifted," reports Peter Deubet, head of the HHM representative office in India. However, a "Delta +" variant has been increasingly observed in recent weeks. As a result, Maharashtra, for example, has reinforced restrictions again.
Concurrently, India is trying to increase the vaccination rate. The government wants to provide every resident with a vaccination offer by the end of the year. Currently, the number of fully vaccinated people is six percent.
The figures, which were still very high in May, also had an impact on the economic growth forecast for the current year. It was reduced from 13 percent to 10 percent. As a reminder, the economy had still slumped by eight percent last year. "However, the forecast assumes a normal monsoon and a weak (possible) third wave of the pandemic," says Deubet.
Nevertheless, according to his information, German companies report a satisfactory business performance this year in the ‘German-India Business Outlook’ of the Indian Chamber of Commerce and the auditing and consulting firm KPMG, and the majority expect growth compared to 2020. The current trade figures of the Indo-German Chamber of Commerce also indicate this. Accordingly, imports from India rose by 23.5 percent to almost 4.5 billion euros in the period between January and May 2021. The figures for exports are even more promising. Here, the figure is almost 4.9 billion euros. This is an increase of 28.6 percent compared to the same period last year.