Lockdown lifted in India
18 Nov 2020 00:00 Economy
Peter Deubet, Head of the Hamburg Representative Office Mumbai, and his colleague Lea Miram, Hamburg Business Manager in Mumbai, report on the current situation in the growth market India.
Moving towards the end of 2020, the previously imposed nationwide lockdown in India has now been lifted in most of the states. Almost 9 Million cases have been counted in the country so far – approximately 465,000 active cases and 130,000 deaths. Unofficial numbers are expected to be higher. The world's largest lockdown so far has cost the Indian economy an estimated 7-8 trillion rupees ($98 billion) over the first initial 21-day period of strict lockdown.
Delays and Container Shortage in Indian Ports
Due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdown, the cargo volumes have witnessed a steep contraction of 17 per cent during the first five months since beginning of the Indian financial year in April.
Indian exporters, who are battling to take advantage of economic recoveries in other countries, are suffering from a shortage of containers. The shortages expose India’s weak consumer demand and tepid economic growth after imposing one of the strictest lockdowns in attempt to control the spread of the virus. While India’s exports rose for the first time in six months in September, imports declined 19.6 per cent to $30.31 billion compared to the same period last year.
The recovery in the port sector will be contingent on the pace of recovery of the domestic industrial activity and the global economy. Further, factors like changes in the global supply chain pattern during the recovery phase will also have an impact on the cargo profile. The full-year outlook for the sector remains negative, with volume contraction expected in FY2021.