Page 17 - Hafen Hamburg | Port of Hamburg Magazine 4.2021

KIEL TRADE INDICATOR
The Kiel Trade Indicator is a novel prior indicator of international trade, launched by the IFW in Kiel in May. IFW uses movements data for containerships in several hundred ports and areas of the sea as the basis for its calculations. Vessel arrivals and sailings for 500 ports worldwide are recorded. According to IFW, ship movements in 100 areas of the sea are analyzed, and effective load factors for containerships measured on the basis of their drafts. Country-ports correlation facilitate exports and import forecasts – even for coun- tries without their own deepsea ports. The Indicator estimates anticipated imports and exports for 75 coun- tries, as well as EU and worldwide freight throughput. An algorithm programmed at IfW Kiel evaluates the figures with the aid of AI. With growing quantities of data, the Kiel Trade Indicator’s algorithm builds up a pool of experience and can autonomously improve on past errors. This gives the Kiel Trade Indicator a grow- ing experience databank. Machine learning also facilitates estimates of the actual state of trade, but also forecasts of future trade movements.
NOVEMBER 2021 (Comparison to previous month) Germany
EU
USA –0,1% China +2,9 %
Global Trade +0,2%
Export
+0,1 %
Import
–0,2% +1,1 % –0,6% –0,4%
Source: ifw-kiel.de/tradeindicator
+1,5 %
Port of Hamburg Magazine | December 2021 | 17
WORLD TRADE ■