Page 10 - Hafen Hamburg | Port of Hamburg Magazine 4.2021

■ WORLD TRADE
Whereas it is hard to predict volcano outbreaks, it can already be said right now that other natural catastrophes will increase
What had the automotive industry not taken into consideration?
The semi-conductor producers are very inflexible in their production. Only when the factories are work- ing to near capacity, are they economically viable. This industry has very long production periods, and is moreover structurally inflexible. These manufacturers suddenly faced a wave of demand that they just could not handle. Because of the automobile industry’s cus- tomary just-in-time supplies, bottlenecks occurred and are still doing so.
What consequences can you draw from that?
There are industries that exhibit a certain degree of
inflexibility, because of the high level of investment. These include the chemical, steel and semi-conduc- tor sectors. It is precisely here that bottlenecks are now increasing. Long production periods and a high level of utilization of capacity resulted; basically, the manufacturers should have paid more attention and covered their needs.
The semi-conductor crisis is a result of the pan- demic. What other crises do you see coming down the line for the economy in the next few years?
There are various incidents or events such as trade wars, political uncertainty or natural catastrophes.
SHOCKS WITH A WORLDWIDE IMPACT ARE OCCURRING INCREASINGLY OFTEN
The worldwide supply chain will more and more frequently be disrupted by all manner of occurrences. The frequency of these has constantly grown and has had differing repercussions on the world economy. Here’s an overview of examples over the past 20 years
2000:
Kargil War (India / Pakistan)
2001: recession
Quelle: McKinsey & Company
2002: SARS
2005:
Hurricane Katrina
2009: Swine flu
2011:
Syrian civil war; Mississippi flooding
2010:
Haitian earthquake
10 | Port of Hamburg Magazine | December 2021
2004:
Indonesian tsunami
2008:
Southeast Asian cyclone; recession
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