Page 6 - Port of Hamburg Magazine 03.2019

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World economic climate deteriorates
In its World Economic Survey, published in August, Munich-based ifo Institute reported a worsening of the world economic climate. In the third quarter, the index fell from –2.4 to –10.1 points. A marked deterioration occurred in both the assessment of the situation and expectations for the future. Intensification of the trade conflict is considerably affecting the world economy.
The economic climate worsened in all regions. In ad- vanced national economies and Asian threshold/de- veloping countries, experts revised both their evalu- ation of the situation and expectations downwards. In Latin America, the Community of Independent States – CIS, the Middle East and North Africa, by contrast, it was simply the current assessment that was less favourable, while evaluations of the next few months remained roughly unchanged.
The experts anticipate distinctly weaker growth in world trade. Expectations on trade are at their low- est level since the outbreak of the trade conflict last year. Those questioned also expect weaker private consumption, less investment activity, and falling short-term and long-term interest rates.
THE EXPERTS ANTICIPATE DISTINCTLY WEAKER GROWTH IN WORLD TRADE
ifo chart on the world economic situation
Quarter/year
III/2017
IV/2017
I/2018
II/2018
III/2018
IV/2018
I/2019
II/2019
III/2019
Climate
13.2
17.1
26.0
16.5
2.9
–2.2
–13.1
–2.4
–10.1
Situation
12.5
17.2
28.3
27.4
17.5
12.2
2.6
1.4
–5.4
Expectations
14.0
16.9
23.9
6.1
–10.6
–15.7
–27.7
–6.1
–14.7
06 | Port of Hamburg Magazine | September 2019
Source: ifo World Economic Survey III/2019
© ifo institute
© BWVI
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