Page 25 - Port of Hamburg Magazine - 03.18

trade region. One of the characteristics of recent agreements is that they not only cover Customs ad- vantages, but also address a range of, at times, very specific market access barriers connected to prod- uct standards and licensing procedures. Not only are there considerably more agreements than previ- ously, but that the new treaties are noteworthy for their greater depth in market integration.
‘GENERAL DECLINE AND FALL IS THE MOST IMPROBABLE SCENARIO’
Given this development, it is however not possible to conclude for sure that there will be an increase in free trade as a global perspective. Since creating advan- taged access for regional trade partners, generally does not lead to an increase in exchange of goods within the free trade zone (trade creation effects), but instead, because of cost differences arising, lead to di- verting trade from third countries in the zone (trade di- version effects). Depending how, in each specific case, the net effect is, a regional agreement can even exacerbate a welfare-damaging distortion in the glob- al division of labour. It is not yet clear how a future global trade order would look on this basis. A general decline and fall in international trade, propagated by some prophesiers of doom, is however certainly the least likely scenario. ■
HINTERLAND ■
Dr. André Wolf
from the Hamburg Institute of International Economics
About HWWI
The Hamburg Institute of International Economics is a scientific research institute that identifies and analyzes future issues in a global society and relevant socio-eco- nomic inter-relationships. One core area lies in analysing macro-economic trends and their implications for econom- ic development on a regional level.
13 ha
5,5 ha
13m
Port of Hamburg Magazine | September 2018 | 25
©HWWI